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Tuesday, July 24, 2012


glass empty is probably the best way to describe. i am one of life's natural pessimist. if it can go wrong; it will. the upside to this is that i am always pleased when things go right.

yet even by my standards i would have trouble being disappointed at results posted by apple.

pretty much everyone acknowledges we are in a pretty major recession - the capitalist world is having a pretty rum time of it, and is not crawling out of the big hole it put itself in thanks to the stupidity of the financial services.
not a lot of people have money to burn right now.

yet apple are 'disappointed' with their figures, though happy with the sales of ipads.
even the markets are not pleased as the share price in apple dropped by 5%
must be pretty dire then.

just what are the figures?
they made a net profit of $8 billion in the three months to june of this year.
that is a 21% increase on last year's sales.
it sold 26 million iphones, a 28% increase, but less than forecast.

by all reasonable measures apple are hitting it out of the park, but they didn't hit the forecasts. as we know oh so well economic forecasting isn't a science, it isn't even close. economic forecasting just seems to be numbers that are plucked from a hat to be changed in the next few days or weeks.
who am i to say that the analysts who study apple shouldn't have been shocked at it missing the forecasts - after all they are probably getting data about the company all the time. there should have been no surprises here for them and they would have done what they needed to do with the shares.

look at those figures again. profit up, over $8 billion - that is a lot of money. sales are up,
for me that is success - in a time of economic turmoil you have someone making oodles. for the market it is a reason to 'sell, sell, sell'.
profits up. sales up. shares down.

there my friend is what is wrong with capitalism, or more accurately the market. unblinking illogical greed is at the heart of it. so what if your profits are prodigious you have missed a forecast therefore you can't be any good.

truly the world of market inhabits a looking glass world - where profits will never be enough unless they match or beat a forecast - doesn't matter that you have billions in profits, you missed the forecast - so you can't be any good.

no wonder the markets are fucked. 

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