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Monday, November 29, 2010


of the many things i am not good at: being sensible with money and being competent at maths come very high at the top of the list. which on the face of it means i should have been an irish banker.

today the office of budget responsibility (obr) have announced that there will be fewer public sector jobs lost than they previously forecast.
this is good news.
in fact it is great news.

though it seems to me, on a philosophical level, to call into question the whole point and purpose of organisations such as the obr.

why (or even how can i say such a thing given my earlier admission) do i say this?
the obr last did their forecast in june of this year, already they have changed it. they will more than likely change it in a few months.
the irish banks are suffering - yet just reccently they passed a 'stress' test from the european central bank.
the oecd will say one thing this week and change their minds next week. the imf will say this and then say that.
economic forecasting isn't so much an a science, it is more a dark art.

as robert chote, the chairman of the obr says: "there is considerable uncertainty around any economic forecasts".

don't know about you, but that fills me with confidence.

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