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Tuesday, January 24, 2012


i don't consult my daily horroscope.
i am wary of what the met office tells us.
i take bus and train timetables with a pinch of salt.
i don't trust bookies with their odds.

when it comes to predictions the experts are no better than making a choice based of the roll of a dice or the flip of a coin.

the international monetary fund (imf) has downgraded its global growth forecase from 4% to 3.25%. the coalition government do not see this as a worry as it jibes with what their, sorry the independent, office of budget responsibility (obr) has to say about growth.
the obr like the imf have changed, several times their short and medium term forecasts.

the imf, who if memory serves me once praised the coalition's austerity programme, are calling for, some, governments not to cut so deep or so quickly.

changing the tune seems to be the order of the economic day.

we are expected to care what ratings agencies like standard and poors or moodys say even though they happily gave triple a ratings to institutions who were dealing in toxic debt.

if i didn't know better i would say it is like economists have minds like goldfish.

here is my idea next time the imf (or any global financial institution) wants to announce their revised figures we'll wheel out bruce forsth to go 'higher? lower?'

the mayans have more chance of bein right than the international monetary fund.

perhaps imf stands for intellectually mendacious forecasts?

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